In considering water conflicts we should also note the importance of intra-state water
tensions, which are related to inter-state conflicts. Water conflicts are related to a
wide range of other socio-political tensions, such as border disputes or mega-projects
such as dams and reservoirs, environmental problems, or political identity. A range of
instruments may be deployed, including: lobbying, open and hidden negotiations,
violence, network building, recourse to international organizations, and the actions of
elites.
The abundance or scarcity of resources decides the direction a society will take in
development. Imbalances, not only of scarcity but of abundance, may distort
environmental and socioeconomic policies, leading to social friction, though newer
approaches to social problems do not see scarcity as leading necessarily to conflict.
Problems may be mitigated by factors such as leadership and social capital, but it is
not easy to identify the factors which lead to a spiral of degradation. Other studies
indicate how conflict may arise through the efforts of elites to capture scarce
resources, or through the debilitating effect on innovation that scarcity entails.
Countries heavily dependent on exports of primary commodities are more liable to
conflict. The “honey pot” of abundant resources may be a focus for greed that
determines civil conflict.
In rentier states, which receive substantial rents from external sources, it is
claimed that fewer people tend to be involved in the production of wealth, and more in
its utilization or distribution. Democratic development and economic growth are both
likely to be slowed down. To what extent can this model be applied also to water
distribution?
The article considers conflict resolution capabilities, in particular the institutional
dimensions, comparing the capacities in developed and developing countries. While
most of the items presented in the article are tools for large-scale change, the
relevance of incremental advances is also considered. Early warning models to predict
the likelihood of conflict are compared, as are risk-assessment models such as that of
the Minorities at Risk Project, and conflict prevention trajectories to identify
“preventors” of conflict.
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